With Christmas pretty much done and dusted for another year, it’s time to dust off the crystal ball and have a look at what 2025 will have to offer, or at least what I think will happen!
New operators?
It’s no secret that Transport for West Midlands (TfWM) are keen for more companies to get involved with bus operations here in the West Midlands, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we see one or two more new operators enter the West Midlands when the next contract tender rounds go out, usually around April and October.
New vehicles?
Well I know that NX West Midlands still have a number of new electric double-decks on order and waiting for delivery, after all they were originally all intended to be in service by now. There are still around 40 of the BYD ADL E400EVs waiting to be used at Yardley Wood, and I expect these will start entering service in January, along with some ‘old faces’ previously retained by provider Zenobe as ‘spares’.
While there’s still not been any ‘official’ announcement, it is still widely believed that the remaining 130 vehicles due for delivery will be Wright Streetdeck Electroliner BEVs (battery-electric vehicle). Where these will be going remains a mystery as plans seem to keep changing, but some of the Black Country garages can look forward to these in the summer!
I also predict in early 2025 that NX Coventry will place an order (if they haven’t already) for single-deck electrics to replace their diesel singles, which will be delivered towards the end of the year, thus fulfilling the requirement for Coventry to be an ‘all-electric bus city’ by the end of 2025.
The other operator in Coventry is Stagecoach, and they’ve already received delivery of brand new electric buses – double-deck ADL E400EVs are already entering service from their Leamington depot, while single-deck Yutongs will start being used early next year from Nuneaton and Rugby depots. While NX Coventry already have a majority of electric vehicles, I predict that Stagecoach will easily beat them to the claim of being the first to have an ‘all-electric’ fleet in Coventry.
As for other operators, Landflight have already introduced some brand-new vehicles, which are replacing buses that are barely six years old. I understand this due to costs of ‘retro-fitting’ next-stop-announcement (NSA) not being worthwhile, which most older buses will be expect to have come October 2025. We’ll probably find other smaller operators doing the same as the year progresses.
Vehicle transfers
As new vehicles get added to operators’ fleets, older vehicles inevitably get moved around elsewhere, a process known as ‘cascading’. With NX West Midlands expecting 130 new double decks, and NX Coventry needing to replace 29 diesel single decks, although it hasn’t quite worked out as expected so far, I predict the plan will continue to be to reduce the number of single decks overall in the fleet, with Scania OmniLinks being replaced with cascaded ADL Enviro200s and Wright Eclipse B7RLEs.
Bus franchising
While this is certainly not going to happen next year, and maybe not until 2027, the wheels are already being set in motion. TfWM are planning to launch a ‘full public consultation’ early next year in order for passengers to ‘help shape and design the future bus network’.
Depending on how this consultation is presented, and what actual involvement the travelling public gets, I predict we’ll see just how far advanced these plans currently are, as I suspect work has already been going on for a couple of years ‘in the background’.
We can also expect to see a lot more ‘propaganda’ being pushed by the Mayor via the local news media, in order to get people ‘on board’ with the idea of franchising.
I will of course share details of this consultation once it commences and will urge people to participate.
Ticket prices and service changes?
Now I know that no-one ever likes to hear about price increases, but it’s almost inevitable that we’ll see some ticket price changes after March 2025, once a government funding package to support bus operators comes to an end. I hope that any price increases are kept to a minimum of course, while I don’t think there will be any increase in the single fare price, we could see the price of a day ticket go up to £4.90 or even £5.00, with weekly and monthly pass prices adjusted accordingly.
If ticket prices don’t increase, then we may yet see some service level reductions as bus operators try to reduce operating costs. There’ll also be further changes as other TfWM contracts come up for renewal throughout the year.
If ticket prices do increase, then expect this to “add fuel to the fire” to the debate around bus franchising (see above).
Sprint and Cross-City buses
I do still wonder whether Sprint is actually ever going to happen or not. The majority of the works involved were supposedly ‘completed’ ahead of the Commonwealth Games in 2022, and while bus services such as the X1, X2, 60, 51 and X51 (amongst others) have been able to take advantage of the new bus lanes installed along the A34 and A45, there is still no sign of this almost mythical Walsall to Solihull express route operated by ‘tram-style’ articulated buses.
Indeed, works are still ‘ongoing’ on the A34 in Walsall, as well as the A45 (Coventry Road) and B425 (Lode Lane) in Solihull.
ZEBRA funding was in place for the purchase of 24 hydrogen-fuelled vehicles for this service, if we don’t get to see what these vehicles will be early next year, then the project will likely get shelved, and the infrastructure already installed will just be used by regular bus services.
I predict that Sprint will just become absorbed into the Cross-City buses project, the first of which was slated to be a combining of the 50 and 87 services into one new long route between Dudley and Maypole.
Dudley bus station and Metro extension?
The old Dudley bus station was closed at the start of this year, with its replacement ‘interchange’ due to be built and opened in 18 months, which will be in the summer of 2025.
Admittedly I’ve not been over to Dudley since then so have had no opportunity to look at progress made, but I suspect that this new bus station won’t be ready next year as promised. Considering the previous mayor also promised that the new Metro extension to Dudley would be ‘up and running’ by the end of 2024, I also doubt we’ll see trams there either.
Meanwhile over in Birmingham, we might see part of the Digbeth extension opened, with one new stop at Moor Street Queensway (by the Clayton Hotel), providing some new interchange opportunities.
Trams won’t be able to go any further than this until after the HS2 station has been completed though, so one wonders what is the point, and how will this fit into the current Metro timetable?
Well, that’s all I can think of for now! If anyone has any thoughts or comments on what they think might happen in 2025, then please feel free to join the discussion and have your say by leaving a comment below.
It just remains for me to wish all my fellow West Midlands Bus Users a very Merry Christmas and a very Happy New Year!
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