Predictions for 2026?

Looking back at some of my previous predictions for this year, I’m starting to think I might as well just give this up, but I’m going to have another go anyway!

One recurrent theme that has prevailed throughout 2025 is that of “delayed”. And that will no doubt continue into 2026, along with the theme of “better late than never”.

Which is kind of ironic because that is what many passengers have found with regards to their bus journeys!

Predicting what will happen in 2026 should be quite easy, because it is all the things that should have happened in 2025!

Dudley bus interchange and tram extension

Originally slated for completion in summer 2025, the new bus interchange in Dudley will finally be completed and opened to the public, at the same time as Midland Metro trams begin operating between Wednesbury and Dudley. When exactly is another matter though, we’ll have to wait and see!

New railway stations in south Birmingham

As 2025 draws to a close, works on the new stations at Moseley Village, Kings Heath and Pineapple Road are almost complete, however I expect that passenger services won’t commence until early next year.

With the new rail services expecting to be launched with a half-hourly frequency, it remains to be seen what impact this will have on passenger loadings on the busy 35 and 50 bus services.

While I expect there may be some ‘modal-shift’ with some passengers choosing to make use of the new service available, I don’t foresee NX West Midlands needing to make any drastic reductions to the 50 timetable just yet.

New railway stations in Walsall

As above, work on new railway stations at Darlaston and Willenhall are now complete, and passengers will start being able to catch direct trains from there to Walsall and Wolverhampton early next year.

Again, it remains to be seen how this impacts on bus usage between Walsall and Wolverhampton, in particular the 529 service, which is currently a key busy link between the two.

Bus service changes

With bus franchising set to kick off in 2027, 2026 will very much continue to be a ‘no man’s land’, as bus operators wait to see what happens. There’s seemingly little point in any bus company seeking to try out any new commercial ventures, and I fear the stagnation of the network will continue. It is sadly more likely that some bus services will cease to be viable, which means that TfWM have to step in and contract out suitable replacements.

Through the course of the year, other currently-contracted services will come up for renewal, and no doubt TfWM will take the opportunity to make some changes to better suit passenger needs.

Mayor Richard Parker promised that franchising meant “taking back control” of the bus network, and shaping it into a network that works for everybody.

If he wants to stay true to that promise, then I would be very disappointed if there is not a wide-ranging public consultation exercise carried out in 2026 that allowed bus passengers to have their say on what a future franchised bus network should look like.

After all, what is the best way to determine how to build a bus network that works for passengers? I still fear that TfWM will rely on historical passenger loading and ticketing data and then feed it through some “AI Model”. TfWM/WMCA is not a commercial business, but they will still want to keep control of costings, otherwise ticket prices will end up going through the roof, or there will end up being more expectations of general taxpayers picking up the bill.

An “AI-generated” route network and timetable might work nicely for the ‘bean-counters’ but is it what bus passengers actually want or need?

New vehicles & old ones

The current delivery of Wright Electroliners into NX West Midlands’ fleet will continue into the early part of 2026, but beyond that we won’t see any further investment in vehicles, apart from the introduction of a small number of double-deck diesel buses transferred in from former coach operations in Bournemouth.

Which will mean that the oldest vehicles in the fleet will finally get withdrawn, the Dennis Tridents (Walsall and Yardley Wood) and the Wright Eclipse Geminis (Acocks Green and West Bromwich), which are rapidly approaching ‘vintage’ status at over 20 years old already.

We could also end 2026 with far fewer single-deck vehicles in the NX fleet. Certainly by the end of the year, Coventry will have none of them, having a 100% electric double-deck fleet instead.

As for other operators, they’re all pretty much in the same boat as NX, unwilling to invest money in upgrading their fleets while franchising is just around the corner. The exception of course will be Stagecoach, who having been awarded new contracts by Warwickshire Country Council for services that enter into Coventry, will become recipients of the last parts of Coventry Electric Bus City funding for the acquisition of more electric buses.

It’s probably not difficult to predict that Stagecoach will be re-awarded the contract for the 82/87/188 services when they go out to tender next year.

Any other business

I don’t think there is much more that can be predicted for 2026, apart from the obvious fare increases in June, which will be met with much outrage, though at least we have the small crumb of comfort in that the price of single tickets will remain capped at £3 throughout 2026.

I would be surprised if there wasn’t a fares increase in June, but even if there were, then I don’t think it will be as much as in recent years, maybe a day ticket will increase from £5.20 to £5.30, or something like that.

I’m all out of ideas right now, but if anyone wants to have a go at making bold predictions for 2026, then please feel free to do so by leaving a comment below!

I hope you all had a great Christmas, and I’d like to take the opportunity to wish you all a very Happy New Year!